Uganda's iron ore endowment is not in doubt. Proven reserves across Muko in Kabale, Bukusu in Mbale and the Sukulu Hills in Tororo are cited at around 260 million tonnes, with Muko haematite grading high enough for direct reduction.
The constraint is not geology
Steel making is an electricity business. Uganda's industrial tariff, while improved, still sits above the level at which regional smelting competes with imported billet, and the Muko deposits sit far from both the grid's strongest nodes and the rail network.
What is actually being built
Practical progress has come in downstream rolling and re-rolling capacity around Kampala and Jinja, which uses imported and scrap feed. Connecting that capacity to domestic ore requires an intermediate processing step that no one has yet financed.
Local effect in Kabale
For Kabale, the near-term reality is quarrying and haulage employment rather than industrial jobs. Road damage from ore trucks is the recurring district complaint and it has not been resolved through the current licence conditions.
Realistic timeline
On current tariffs and infrastructure, a domestic integrated steel chain is a decade proposition. The intermediate win, beneficiating ore to a saleable concentrate for regional buyers, is available now and attracts far less political attention than it deserves.