So, Bank of Uganda balance of payments data released in early 2025 show official gold export receipts climbing sharply through 2024, reversing several years of decline linked to a dispute with informal refiners and to enforcement action against re-exported bullion of uncertain provenance.
Ministry officials attribute the rebound to two factors: the licensed Wagagai facility going into production, and the first cohorts of artisanal cooperatives selling into formal aggregators under the Mining and Minerals Act 2022. Firmer international gold prices reward formal channels more visibly than informal ones.
The next test is durability. UMT will watch whether the 2024 rebound sustains through 2025 or whether informal channels reassert themselves at the district level.
01Reading the number carefully
Truth be told, Official export receipts measure what passes through formal channels, not what is produced in Uganda. Kampala's refineries process material sourced across the region, so a rise in recorded exports can reflect increased transit volume, a higher gold price, better capture of existing production, or genuine growth in domestic output. The published series does not separate these.
02The case that formalisation is working
There are supporting indicators. Cooperative licensing has expanded, more artisanal output is being sold to registered buyers, and the export levy regime has been stabilised after several years of change. Where miners can sell legally at a competitive price, they do, and that is the mechanism the Mining and Minerals Act 2022 was designed to exploit.
03The case for caution
Against that, price effects can flatter the receipts figure without any change in volume, and Uganda's role as a regional refining hub means a share of the total was never Ugandan ore. The Auditor General has separately found royalty collection lagging declared production, which is difficult to reconcile with a straightforward formalisation success story.
04Counter-argument
Now, it is also possible to be too sceptical. Even if part of the increase is transit and price, moving trade into a channel that is licensed, audited and taxed is an improvement on the alternative, and it creates a record that can be interrogated. That is progress of a kind, even where the volume is not domestic.
05What to watch
Even so, the figures that would settle the argument are tonnage rather than value, a published split between domestically mined and imported gold, and royalty receipts against declared production. Time will show whether the paper becomes work.
How we verified this: licence and production details are checked against official records and ministry statements where they exist. Corrections are welcome through our contact page.
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